"Пауза Энгельса". Экономисты назвали самую серьезную неочевидную угрозу со стороны ИИ

{"title":"The Engels Pause: Economists Identify AI's Most Serious Hidden Threat to Global Economies","content":"<p>As artificial intelligence continues its rapid integration into workplaces worldwide, economists are raising alarms about a potentially devastating consequence that extends far beyond individual job losses. The displacement of human workers by AI systems could trigger a significant decline in personal income tax revenues, threatening the fiscal foundations of governments around the globe. This phenomenon, which some researchers are calling a modern iteration of the "Engels Pause," represents one of the most serious yet overlooked threats posed by the AI revolution.</p><p>The concept draws its name from Friedrich Engels, the 19th-century philosopher and economist who, alongside Karl Marx, documented the social upheavals of the Industrial Revolution. During that era, technological advances dramatically increased productivity and corporate profits while workers' wages stagnated for decades. Historical records show that between 1820 and 1840, British workers saw virtually no improvement in their living standards despite the nation's industrial output soaring. Economists fear that AI could trigger a similar dynamic, where the benefits of technological progress concentrate among capital owners while the broader workforce faces displacement and income erosion.</p><p>Personal income tax represents the backbone of government revenue in most developed nations. In the United States, individual income taxes account for approximately 50 percent of federal revenue, while European countries show similar dependencies ranging from 25 to 40 percent of total government income. When AI systems replace human workers, these tax revenues evaporate almost instantly. Unlike human employees who contribute to social security, healthcare systems, and pension funds through payroll deductions, AI systems and robots currently operate largely outside traditional taxation frameworks. This creates a dangerous gap in public finances that could undermine essential services and social safety nets precisely when they are needed most.</p><p>The scale of potential job displacement is staggering. Recent studies by Goldman Sachs estimate that generative AI could automate roughly 300 million full-time jobs globally. The International Monetary Fund has projected that approximately 40 percent of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI, with advanced economies facing even higher exposure rates approaching 60 percent. White-collar professions once considered immune to automation, including legal research, financial analysis, content creation, and customer service, now face significant disruption. Each eliminated position represents not only a personal tragedy for the worker involved but also a permanent reduction in the tax base that funds public infrastructure, education, and healthcare.</p><p>Some economists argue that historical precedent suggests new technologies ultimately create more jobs than they destroy. The automobile industry, for instance, eliminated positions for horse-drawn carriage drivers but generated millions of jobs in manufacturing, maintenance, fuel distribution, and related services. However, critics of this optimistic view point out that AI represents a fundamentally different kind of technological shift. Unlike previous innovations that automated physical tasks, AI threatens cognitive labor across virtually every sector simultaneously. The transition period, even if new job categories eventually emerge, could last decades, during which governments would face mounting deficits and diminishing capacity to provide social support.</p><p>Policy responses to this looming crisis remain fragmented and largely inadequate. Some jurisdictions have proposed robot taxes, which would levy fees on companies that replace human workers with automated systems. Bill Gates famously endorsed this concept in 2017, arguing that robots performing human jobs should be taxed at equivalent rates. However, implementation faces significant challenges, including defining what constitutes a robot or AI system, measuring displacement accurately, and preventing companies from relocating to jurisdictions without such taxes. Other proposals include universal basic income programs funded through wealth taxes or corporate levies on AI-driven profits, though these remain politically controversial and economically untested at scale.</p><p>The warning signs are already visible in certain sectors. Customer service centers have reduced headcounts dramatically as AI chatbots handle increasing volumes of inquiries. Legal firms report using AI to perform document review tasks that previously required teams of junior associates. Financial institutions have automated trading floors and analysis functions that once employed thousands. Each transformation improves corporate efficiency and profitability while simultaneously eroding the income tax base. Without proactive policy intervention, this trend threatens to accelerate, creating a vicious cycle where reduced government revenues lead to diminished public services, which in turn increases social instability and economic inequality.</p><p>As the AI revolution continues to unfold, the Engels Pause serves as both a historical warning and a call to action. The 19th-century version lasted approximately forty years before workers began sharing in the fruits of industrial progress. Modern economies, with their complex social contracts and democratic institutions, may not survive a similar extended disruption. Governments, economists, and technology leaders must work together to develop new fiscal frameworks that ensure the benefits of artificial intelligence are distributed broadly across society, rather than concentrated among a narrow technological elite while the foundations of public finance crumble beneath the weight of progress.</p>}